This wasn't difficult, but it's the only specific question I can remember.

You're playing basketball and you're down by 2. You know you can hit a 2-pointer to tie the game with 28% probability, and then go on to win the game in overtime with 50% probability. Alternatively, you know you can hit a 3-pointer and win with 15% probability. Which do you take?

Question

This wasn't difficult, but it's the only specific question I can remember.

You're playing basketball and you're down by 2. You know you can hit a 2-pointer to tie the game with 28% probability, and then go on to win the game in overtime with 50% probability. Alternatively, you know you can hit a 3-pointer and win with 15% probability. Which do you take?

Anoniem · Accepted Answer

The 3-pointer

X · Answer

3-pointer.  First option has a probability of 14% of wining (0.28x0.5) whilst the second option gives you a probability of 28%.

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